Latest Signals
Short observations on markets, growth, technology, and decision-making.
Now the burger chain discloses
The 2027 electricity tariff disclosures have reached consumer-facing companies. Burgerizzr expects about a 1% rise in annual cost of revenue. National Gypsum expects annual production costs to rise about 1%. Watani Steel expects total cost of sales to rise 1.12%. National Building & Marketing expects its subsidiary Ajeej Steel's energy costs to rise about SAR 3.5 million from 2027.
When a restaurant chain reports the same 1% as a gypsum plant, it shows that the tariff change is affecting every part of the economy that uses power, not just heavy industry.
Ten banks, SAR 73.58 billion
Combined nine-month net profit at the 10 banks listed on the main market rose 6.84% to SAR 73.58 billion, from SAR 68.87 billion a year earlier. Al Rajhi led with SAR 20.87 billion, up 13.3%, ahead of SNB at SAR 19.48 billion, up 4.57%. Q3 profit alone rose 4.8% to SAR 24.75 billion, and SNB's Q3 was down 0.29%.
Nine-month growth of 6.84% has slowed to 4.8% in Q3. The sector is still growing, but momentum is fading. If you manage strategy at a mid-sized Saudi bank, focus on leading in a specific segment instead of trying to match Al Rajhi's balance sheet.
SeaPay sold for SAR 35 million
Arab Sea Information System signed an MoU with PayTabs Group to sell its entire stake in its wholly owned payments subsidiary, Arab Sea Financial Co. (SeaPay), for SAR 35 million. The MoU is valid for six months, and the deal still needs due diligence, a final agreement and regulatory approvals.
Payment licences are now being bought and sold as assets. If you’re a founder of a licensed Saudi fintech, it’s important to know what your licence is worth before deals like this SAR 35 million sale set the standard.
Provisions ate the margin
Saudi banks' Q3 2026 profit grew 4.8% to about SAR 24.75 billion, the slowest growth since Q4 2020, even though net financing and investment income rose 11.4% and net financing income rose 9.1% to SAR 29.3 billion. Provisions rose 50% to nearly SAR 3 billion, lifting the cost of risk from about 26 to 36 basis points. Al Rajhi, Riyad Bank and BSF together took about 95% of the increase in net profit.
Net financing income increased by 9.1%, but profit was up just 4.8%, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2020. Equity analysts covering Saudi banks should focus their Q4 forecasts more on provisions than on lending growth.
7.9%, top of the G20
The Ministry of Investment said Saudi Arabia leads 2027 growth forecasts among G20 countries at 7.9%, based on IMF data for October 2026, ahead of India at 7.0%, Indonesia at 5.1% and China at 4.0%. In the same IMF ranking, the US is forecast at 2.3% and the UK at 1.2%.
Leading the G20 at 7.9% strengthens the case for patient capital, so investor-relations heads at Saudi listed companies should anchor their 2027 story to the IMF figure rather than to this month's share prices.
Saudi leads ESG dollar debt
Saudi Arabia was the largest single contributor to emerging-market US dollar ESG debt issuance excluding China, at 20.9%, ahead of the UAE at 17.8%, and outstanding GCC ESG debt exceeded $72.9 billion at the end of Q3, up 18% year on year, with sukuk making up 43%, according to Fitch, which expects issuance to rise from Q4 2026.
Saudi Arabia holds a 20.9% share, making it the main issuer of emerging-market ESG dollar debt. With sukuk making up 43% of Gulf issuances, the Islamic structure is now a key attraction. If you lead debt capital markets at a Saudi bank, present ESG sukuk to clients as a standard financing option rather than just a way to boost reputation.
Arada lands with SAR 50 billion
UAE developer Arada launched Arada KSA with local partner Xtopia, giving it access to a 10 million sqm land portfolio worth SAR 50 billion in Riyadh, Jeddah and Makkah; its first project is a SAR 14 billion community of about 3,500 villas and townhouses on around 2.5 million sqm in Riyadh's Al Rimal district, funded through a CMA-regulated structure, with sales and construction starting in 2027.
Launching a SAR 14 billion project in a slow market is a big gamble on Saudi housing demand. If you handle land acquisition for a local developer, expect strong new competition for every large plot.
Five firms manage 60%
Assets managed by Saudi capital market institutions reached about SAR 1.36 trillion at the end of Q2 2026, up 6%, or SAR 74.5 billion, on the quarter, according to a CMA report; SNB Capital led with SAR 303.6 billion (22%), followed by Al Rajhi Capital at SAR 181.5 billion (13%) and Alinma Capital at SAR 128.6 billion (9%), and the top five firms held 60% of the total.
Five firms control 60% of a SAR 1.36 trillion market, and most of the growth is happening through bank-owned channels. If you run a boutique asset manager, focus on a niche that the top five overlook instead of trying to match their scale.
Locals bought what foreigners sold
Foreign investors sold a net $2.3 billion of GCC stocks in Q3 2026, the largest quarterly outflow since records began in 2019, Kamco Invest said; in Saudi Arabia, local investors switched to net purchases of SAR 5.6 billion from net sales of SAR 5.8 billion in the previous quarter, led by institutions with SAR 5.9 billion of net buying.
Local investors shifted from selling SAR 5.8 billion to buying SAR 5.6 billion. If you manage investor relations at a Saudi-listed company, consider focusing more on domestic fund managers this quarter.
A million robo-managed portfolios
Assets managed through robo-advisory services in Saudi Arabia reached SAR 9.9 billion at the end of Q2 2026, up 128% year on year and SAR 2.08 billion (26.6%) on the quarter. The number of portfolios passed one million for the first time, reaching 1.05 million, up 161% in a year, with average assets of around SAR 9,500 each; eight fintech companies hold CMA robo-advisory licences.
With assets reaching SAR 9.9 billion after 128% growth, robo-advice is now a mainstream channel rather than a niche. Bank heads of wealth need to decide whether to build, partner, or buy before the eight licensees determine pricing.
SAR 159.1 billion came in
Foreign direct investment inflows into Saudi Arabia rose 33.5% in 2025 to SAR 159.1 billion, from SAR 119.2 billion in 2024, GASTAT data show, while outflows rose 98.5% to SAR 77.7 billion, so net FDI rose only 1.7% to SAR 81.4 billion. By activity, construction drew the largest inflows at SAR 34.5 billion, followed by manufacturing at SAR 33.4 billion; by country, Luxembourg recorded the highest net inflows at SAR 24.4 billion, followed by the UAE at SAR 9.4 billion.
According to GASTAT, outflows mean foreign investors are reducing their stakes in Saudi companies by repaying loans, taking dividends, or exiting, rather than Saudi money leaving the country. Since net FDI is nearly unchanged, anyone presenting investment momentum to a board should focus on the net figure instead of just the inflow.
Expo gets the giga-project crews
PIF's decision in August to drop The Line and Trojena from its 2026–30 strategy has freed construction crews just as Expo 2030 Riyadh moves into construction. Every Expo tender has drawn at least seven or eight qualified bidders, and four or five signature-building contracts are due before year-end. The Saudi pavilion's substructure is almost 50% complete, a utility corridor of more than 7km is being built, the workforce will peak at 40,000 to 50,000, and Expo opens on 1 October 2030.
Four or five key contracts due before year-end will establish the price benchmark for the site. The subcontractor's commercial team should secure framework terms with the likely winners as soon as possible.
SAR 700 against SAR 15,000
A Princess Nourah University team has built a locally made breathing-assist device for people with quadriplegia that costs about SAR 700, against SAR 3,000 to SAR 15,000 for similar imported devices. Prince Sultan University's prosthetics centre says 3D printing has cut prosthetic limb production from 20 days to two, and field research showed 83% of users walking independently with daily use reaching 10 hours. 159 teams took part in an AI hackathon for people with disabilities at the 7th International Conference on Disability and Rehabilitation in Riyadh.
A device that costs around SAR 700, compared to imported versions priced between SAR 3,000 and SAR 15,000, highlights where local production makes the most sense. This is especially true for assistive products with low sales volumes and high import markups.
Minus 3.3%, then plus 7.9%
The IMF's October World Economic Outlook projects the Saudi economy to contract 3.3% in 2026 and grow 7.9% in 2027, under a baseline in which the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening in March 2027. The Fund sees Saudi inflation at 1.9% this year, while the Ministry of Finance's preliminary 2027 budget statement projected real GDP growth of 12.8% next year.
The difference between the IMF's 7.9% and the ministry's 12.8% reflects two opinions about how quickly oil revenues will come back. The budget is based on the more optimistic estimate.
765,000 came for the falcons
The Saudi Falcons and Hunting Exhibition 2026 closed after receiving 765,000 visitors in 10 days at the Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center in Malham, with 1,450 exhibitors and brands on 200,000 square metres. A Mongolian falcon sold for SAR 1.4 million, the highest price in the auction's history, and auction sales exceeded SAR 7 million; the Al-Malwah race carried SAR 723,000 in prizes.
765,000 visitors alongside a single SAR 1.4 million falcon shows the exhibition serves a mass audience and a high-spending niche at the same time.
Three deals, 70% of the region
MENA startups raised $1.1 billion through 73 deals in September, according to Wamda and Digital Digest. Saudi Arabia led with 40 startups raising $947.2 million, and fintech generated 86% of the capital raised by Saudi companies. Three Saudi fintech deals, Barq's $329.5 million series A, Tabby's $233 million series F and Lendo's $200 million debt financing, totalled $762.5 million, nearly 70% of the region's monthly capital. Female-founded startups received $2.4 million.
Three Saudi fintech deals accounting for nearly 70% of the region's capital, September highlights the scale of individual successes rather than the overall depth of the market.
Derivatives wake up
Derivatives trading on Saudi Exchange rose to about SAR 1.157 billion in September 2026, from SAR 404.9 million in August and SAR 280,000 in July, after no trading at all in H1 2026. Contracts traded rose to 26,510 from 9,725, and transactions to 5,526 from about 1,990. Analysts surveyed by Argaam linked the surge to regulatory enhancements that took effect on 19 August, which cut trading costs and improved capital efficiency.
Analysts link the increase to the changes made on 19 August and believe that growth will require support from more institutions. So a fund manager's risk committee should set a derivatives policy now, instead of waiting for liquidity to stabilize.
Bad loans eat eXtra's profit
United Electronics Co. (eXtra) said Q3 2026 net profit fell about 27% to SAR 105 million from SAR 143 million. Profit in its consumer finance segment fell 82.4%, with net impairment losses of SAR 70.1 million in the quarter; over nine months, impairments included a SAR 33.8 million management overlay to raise coverage and speed write-offs. Retail profit rose 10.6%, and revenue grew 5.5% to SAR 1.89 billion.
The retail business increased its profit by 10.6%, while consumer finance profit declined by 82.4%. This indicates that eXtra's quarterly results were driven by credit factors rather than consumer demand.
13.99 million insured workers
Saudi Arabia's social insurance scheme covered 13.99 million public and private sector employees at the end of Q2 2026, according to GOSI data. Saudis numbered 3.17 million, or 23%, and expatriates about 10.82 million, or 77%. The private sector accounted for 13.35 million, or 95%, and Riyadh for about 7.24 million. In the quarter, 245,600 people suspended their subscription, 103,400 of them Saudis.
Saudis make up 23% of insured workers, but they account for 103,400 out of 245,600 suspensions. Because of this, a workforce-programme manager should monitor employee exits each quarter just as carefully as new hires.
HungerStation goes to review
Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Competition opened a public consultation on Uber Technologies' acquisition of Delivery Hero, which includes HungerStation, wholly owned by Delivery Hero in Saudi Arabia. Uber's July 2026 offer of €41.50 per share values Delivery Hero at about €13 billion, and the deal is expected to close in H2 2027 subject to approvals. Feedback is open until Oct. 20.
The deal is set to close in the second half of 2027, once it gets all the necessary approvals. During the consultation period, a rival Saudi delivery app could make its case for limits on the combined group's market share.
A film slate for Rotana
The Cultural Development Fund signed a financing agreement with Rotana Media Group to support films and TV series worth more than SAR39 million. The productions are expected to add more than SAR72 million to GDP, create 68 jobs and draw over SAR12 million in private-sector contributions. Saudi box-office revenue passed SAR920 million in 2025, and Saudi films took about 13% of it, over SAR122 million, from 11 of the 538 films released.
The fund evaluates this deal based on the expected SAR72 million GDP contribution and SAR12 million in private investment. Studio heads should highlight these figures when pitching, rather than focusing on the creative brief.
Households borrow a record
Loans to individuals hit a record SAR 1.472 trillion at the end of August, per SAMA data. That is up SAR 38.01 billion (2.65%) since end-2025 and 3.85% year on year, and the 14th straight monthly rise. Individuals now account for 42.49% of total bank credit of SAR 3.464 trillion.
For fourteen months in a row, households have kept borrowing even as the economy slows down, and banks continue to approve their loans.
Instagram takes the ad riyal
Digital ad spending in Saudi Arabia rose 25% to about $300 million in the 12 months to July 2026, while impressions rose 15% to about 330 billion (Sensor Tower). Instagram led all channels at about $110 million, and Sensor Tower expects about $334 million for 2026.
Marketing spend is growing faster than impressions. If you are planning for 2027, expect higher cost per view rather than relying on this year's rates.
Saudis are sending more abroad
Saudi nationals' remittances abroad rose 20% year on year to SAR 5.8 billion in August, and expatriate remittances rose 1% to SAR 13.5 billion. Over eight months, expatriates sent around SAR 113 billion. Saudi nationals sent around SAR 44.1 billion, down from SAR 47.5 billion a year earlier.
Expatriate flows have stayed steady at about SAR 113 billion over the past eight months. For a payments company looking to grow, it makes more sense to focus on better fees and faster service for Saudi senders instead of waiting for the market to get bigger.
