S&P Global Ratings affirmed Saudi Arabia's long-term sovereign credit rating at 'A+' with a stable outlook, and expects real GDP to contract 0.9% in 2026 before growing 8.2% in 2027, followed by average growth of 3.3% in 2028 and 2029. The agency put non-oil activities including government at around 70% of GDP, up from 65% in 2018.
When a rating agency keeps an A+ rating but also predicts a 0.9% economic contraction, it shows that the analysts are focusing on the 70% of the economy that is not tied to oil and are prepared to be patient.
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Kicking the maturities to 2041
NDMC redeemed SR17.1bn ($4.5bn) of 2026–2030 sukuk and issued SR17.2bn maturing to 2041, a liability-management exercise.
The takeaway: A state that manages its maturity curve shows confidence, indicating long-term projects your business might supply.
This year cut, next year doubled
A Bloomberg survey of 15 economists at major international banks, conducted between 11 and 16 September, put average expected Saudi GDP growth for this year at about 0.6%, down from 1.6% in the previous survey, with individual estimates ranging from growth of close to 3% to a contraction of 2.5%. The same economists expect the Saudi economy to grow about 6.1% in 2027, and the survey period coincided with the attack that temporarily halted the East-West pipeline.
The difference between this year and next reflects a disruption rather than a trend. Investors considering Saudi exposure should view the 6.1% figure as a rebound estimate that requires separate stress testing.
$167 billion, and whose calendar it sits on
Kamco Invest puts Saudi bond and sukuk maturities for 2026–2030 at $167.4bn, the largest in the GCC, 64.5% of it dollar-denominated, with 73.5% of the corporate share held by banks and financial institutions.
When we opened Issue 01 with record credit of SR3.2tn, that was the top of the curve. The banks have their own maturities to meet now; price anything you plan to borrow for off the next two years of lending, not the last two.
