GASTAT's flash estimate puts Q2 real GDP down 4.8% year on year, oil activities −24.7%, non-oil +0.6%, government +0.9%. Seasonally adjusted, the economy shrank 4.9% on the quarter. For context, the Q1 2026 flash showed GDP +3.0% with non-oil +2.8%. so on a like-for-like flash basis, non-oil growth has fallen from 2.8% to 0.6% in one quarter.
A −4.8% print looks bad and mostly isn't; a +0.6% print looks fine and mostly isn't. That inversion is the whole difficulty of reading this economy right now, the alarming number is the reassuring one, and the reassuring number is the one to worry about.
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SAR 4.98 billion to small firms
Financing to micro, small and medium enterprises through the SME Bank's programmes rose 11.4% to SAR 4.98 billion in Q2 2026, from SAR 4.47 billion a year earlier. The cumulative total through indirect lending and the Kafalah guarantee programme reached about SAR 139 billion since 2006, reaching more than 145,000 businesses, and Riyadh region took 44.4% of it.
Since Q2 lending increased to SAR 4.98 billion, the SME product head should focus more on promoting guaranteed loans in regions outside Riyadh, where their share is still low.
Surplus up, non-oil down
Trade surplus SR26.03bn (+328.8%) in May, but oil exports +19.5% to 75.6% of the total, while non-oil exports fell 26.1%.
The test isn't whether the surplus grows, it's whether it can grow when oil doesn't.
Saudis are sending more abroad
Saudi nationals' remittances abroad rose 20% year on year to SAR 5.8 billion in August, and expatriate remittances rose 1% to SAR 13.5 billion. Over eight months, expatriates sent around SAR 113 billion. Saudi nationals sent around SAR 44.1 billion, down from SAR 47.5 billion a year earlier.
Expatriate flows have stayed steady at about SAR 113 billion over the past eight months. For a payments company looking to grow, it makes more sense to focus on better fees and faster service for Saudi senders instead of waiting for the market to get bigger.
