Latest Signals
Short observations on markets, growth, technology, and decision-making.
Ten billion in Paris
Deals expected to be signed between Saudi and French entities at the Saudi–French Roundtable Investment Meeting in Paris exceed $10 billion, spanning advanced industries, transport and logistics services, artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. The Crown Prince attended alongside French officials and business leaders.
ُhe four named sectors are advanced industries, logistics, AI and digital infrastructure، energy is not among them, which is what a diversification agenda looks like once it reaches the deal table.
School fees hit the card data
Point-of-sale spending fell 2.8% to SR14.19 billion ($3.79 billion) in the week ended 15 August across 249.68 million transactions, down 1.5%, while education transactions jumped 62.7% week on week to SR446.08 million. Food and beverages led at SR2.2 billion, down 3.7%, and Riyadh accounted for SR4.84 billion across 79.80 million transactions.
The 62.7% increase in education spending, despite a 2.8% overall decline, reflects a calendar effect rather than increased consumer confidence. Households shifted funds rather than increasing total spending.
Three trillion riyals, out the door
Saudi listed banks' Q2 2026 numbers, per Al Rajhi Capital: net loans rose 7% year on year to SR3.25 trillion ($865.2bn), deposits rose 9% to SR3.15 trillion, pushing the loan-to-deposit ratio to 103%, while net interest margin improved 5 basis points to 2.96%.
On the surface deposits are exceeding loans even though the loan-to-deposit ratio is still rising above 100٪, so this year wholesale funding costs should be the figure you look at rather than headline loan growth.
Cybersecurity becomes managed service
Purity Information Technology signed a SAR9.3 million contract, including VAT, with Qassim Emirate for three years of operation, maintenance and cybersecurity support services.
The SAR9.3 million, three-year contract makes cybersecurity an operating commitment; manage service quality and incident response as tightly as the initial technical delivery.
Ten percent of the country
Aramco and Maaden are forming a joint venture, Maaden at 51%, Aramco at 49%, to explore Zone-4 of the Arabian Platform, about 182,000 square kilometres, close to 10% of The kingdom's land area, targeting copper and other energy-transition minerals along a 100-km-wide corridor. Saudi mineral wealth is valued at over SR9.3 trillion ($2.5 trillion), against a Vision 2030 target of lifting mining's contribution to GDP to SR240 billion.
Aramco’s 49% stake, rather than a controlling interest, positions this as a capability contribution. Aramco provides subsurface data, while Maaden will operate the business.
PIF publishes its year
The Public Investment Fund's 2025 results show revenue up 9% to $120 billion and net profit more than doubling to $17 billion, with assets under management above $900 billion against $530 billion in 2021, annualised total shareholder return of 5.8% since 2017, 80% of assets held domestically and 55% in alternatives. PIF put its contribution at 11% of Saudi non-oil GDP in 2025 and $342 billion cumulatively from 2021 to 2025, with $199 billion deployed domestically over that period and international investments up 12% in 2025.
Revenue grew 9% and profit more than doubled, and the gap is portfolio companies beginning to pay out, not the fund's businesses running twice as well. The maturation of the new strategy is built on, showing up before the strategy did.
The second SIM tells the truth
Opensignal's Saudi read puts stc at 49.0% of the market, Mobily at 23.8% and Zain KSA at 14.6%, with virtual operators collectively near 12% and 7.4 million subscribers in early 2026. Zain customers are likeliest to carry a second SIM at about 37%, against 27% at Mobily and about 17% at stc; operators have invested over $1.5 billion in 5G spectrum since 2019.
Dual-SIM rates show pre-churn behavior, so focus your pricing and packaging on the second SIM instead of comparing only to a competitor's main plan.
What BNPL actually earns
Argaam's read on the sector after SAMA lifted the BNPL financing ceiling to SAR 10,000 puts the Saudi market at $4.96 billion in 2025, $5.29 billion in 2026 and $7.31 billion by 2031, a 6.66% compound rate overall, against 28.85% for bank-linked BNPL services and 33.97% for the healthcare segment. Tabby ran an effective financing yield of 19.5% on $1.6 billion of assets in Q1 2026, Tamara 31.7% on $1.8 billion.
There is no longer a single economic model for BNPL services. The 19.5% and 31.7% market segments operate as distinct businesses. Banks, compounding at 28.85%, benefit from lower funding costs and established customer relationships. As a result, standalone BNPL providers should prioritize their cost of capital over market share.
The money is moving closer
Assets under management in Saudi reached SR1.244 trillion at the end of 2025, from SR612 billion in 2020, with listed companies up 89% to 392, foreign ownership doubling to SR417 billion, and net foreign purchases on the Saudi Exchange running $1.6 billion in Q2 2026.
Doubling AUM and foreign ownership within five years indicates a market that has shifted in ownership, not just in value. Foreign owners often pose different questions to management than domestic owners.
PIF switches from growth to returns
The Public Investment Fund's 2026–2030 strategy shifts the mandate from expansion to value creation, after assets under management grew from about SR500 billion ($136 billion) in 2015 to over SR3.4 trillion in 2025, more than $199 billion of new domestic projects between 2021 and 2025, and total annual shareholder return above 7% since 2017.
A fund that has grown from SR500 billion to SR3.4 trillion can no longer rely on its size to impress. After five years of expansion, it must now demonstrate profitability.
Spending cooled by 1.7 billion
Point-of-sale transactions fell to SR14.6 billion in the week to 8 August from SR16.31 billion the week before, with transaction count down to 253.4 million from 267.1 million, Riyadh accounted for SR4.88 billion of it, or 33.4%. Food and beverages led at SR2.28 billion across 58.41 million transactions, ahead of restaurants and cafes at SR1.9 billion.
The data shows that average spending has gone down. In reality, it's still the same people going out just as often, but now they pick cheaper options when they get there.
Robotic surgery, performed remotely
Saudi Arabia's Seha Virtual Hospital completed 11 consecutive remote robotic surgeries, including the second remote lobectomy and fifth remote pneumonectomy performed anywhere in the world, with surgeons in Riyadh operating on patients in Hail and other regions.
A surgeon in Riyadh successfully performed surgery on a patient in Hail without either of them needing to travel. This occurred eleven times in a row, proving that distance is no longer an obstacle to effective medical care.
Saudi carries half of Gulf tourism
Saudi Arabia's travel and tourism sector contributed $178 billion to the economy in 2025, 46% of the entire Middle East's travel and tourism economy, growing 7.4%, nearly double the global rate of 4.1%, with international visitor spending up 8.2% against a 3.2% global rate.
Nearly half of the entire region's tourism economy now lies in Saudi Arabia, growing at twice the global rate, a shift large enough that the map of Middle Eastern travel needs to be redrawn before the guidebooks catch up.
Foreign direct investment tops SR1.1 trillion
Saudi Arabia's foreign direct investment stock reached SR1,122.8 billion at the end of Q1 2026, up 12% year on year and representing about 32% of total foreign investment in the Kingdom, against total foreign investment of SR3,530.8 billion, up 18% year on year.
FDI growing 12% while total foreign investment grew 18% means portfolio and other investment are growing faster than direct investment, hot money is currently outpacing the patient kind.
AI use in Saudi Arabia doubled
The share of Saudi internet users using AI tools reached 45.2% in 2025, more than double the year before, per the CSTC's Saudi Internet Report, highest among 20–29 year-olds at 55.7%, and higher among women (52.8%) than men (39.4%). Business adoption reached 33.1% (up 20% year on year), led by information and communications at 61.1% and financial services at 52.9%.
Individuals are 12 points ahead of their employers in AI adoption, and 61.1% of information and communications firms are already using it. Sell capabilities now, because the buying committee is already using these tools personally, even where procurement hasn't caught up.
The insurance market doubled
Saudi Arabia's insurance market reached SR84 billion in 2025, up from SR42 billion in 2021, effectively doubling in four years. Health and motor insurance accounted for 89% of premium growth, with health insurance alone contributing to 68% of that increase. Growth is decelerating sharply: 26.9% in 2022, 22.7% in 2023, 16.3% in 2024, 10.7% in 2025.
The market doubled in four years while its growth rate halved twice, from 26.9% to 10.7%, as the sector moves from expansion into maturity, where the next phase competes on retention rather than acquisition.
Saudi took 62% of MENA
MENA startups raised $172.6 million across 45 deals in July, up 16% month on month. Saudi Arabia took $106.6 million across 16 deals, 62% of the regional total. The UAE raised $46.6 million, also across 16 deals, followed by Syria at $10.6 million, Egypt $7.25 million and Morocco $2 million. Saudi Arabia and the UAE together accounted for roughly 89% of all capital raised. Notable rounds: RIME's $2 million seed led by Seedra Ventures, a strategic investment into MOZN from Humain, and an "A-" rating assigned to Tamara by Simah.
Saudi's 62% resulted from larger investments on the same number of deals in a regional pool of only $172.6 million, the move is to compete for strategic capital, not to chase a VC market this small.
SR425 billion in one quarter
Saudi consumer spending rose 6.8% year on year to SR425 billion in Q1 2026, covering point-of-sale transactions, cash withdrawals and e-commerce purchases. Total 2025 spending through official payment channels was SR1.57 trillion. For context in the same report: Q1 GDP grew 3%, non-oil activity 2.9%, inflation ran at 1.8%, and the IMF forecasts 1.7% growth for 2026 and 5.5% for 2027.
SR425 billion in a single quarter, growing nearly 5% faster than prices. The Saudi consumer is contributing more to this economy than the GDP indicates.
Fifty-seven studies, twelfth session
The Riyadh Economic Forum will hold its 12th session on 12–14 October 2026 at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, with ministers, public and private sector specialists, academics and business owners participating. The forum has presented more than 57 economic studies over its history, many of which became government initiatives and decisions.
if you want policy input rather than policy news, October is the window. Submissions and positioning happen before the session, not during it, so start now.
PIF's $2.4 billion half
Lucid announced $1.4 billion in identified cost cut as H1 2026 losses widened 50% to $2.4 billion from $1.6 billion a year earlier. H1 production was 10,274 vehicles against a full-year target of 25,000–27,000. Shares fell 9% after the announcement.
The second half now needs to roughly double the first, and $1.4 billion in cuts does not close a $2.4 billion gap on its own, production is the real test here, not the balance sheet.
47,000 new customers in a quarter
Saudi Energy posted H1 2026 revenue up 11% to SR52 billion and net income up nearly 8% to SR6.7 billion, though Q2 net profit fell 7% on higher finance costs. Capital expenditure reached SR39 billion, up 6%. The customer base hit 11.6 million, with more than 47,000 added in Q2; the distribution network grew 5%, transmission 4% and fibre-optic lines 7%. The stock is up over 25% year to date.
47,000 new connections in three months is roughly 500 a day, paid for with capex running near six times profit, the grid is being built ahead of the country that will eventually fill it.
A stadium sponsorship's real price tag
Aramco's World Cup sponsorship is expected to add $26.1 billion to the company's corporate value, about 43% of the $61 billion in total corporate value generated across all tournament sponsors, with brand value up roughly $1.08 billion and 2.3% growth, fourth among official sponsors
A leading oil company has proven its ability to drive brand growth through a football tournament, outpacing gains from its traditional extraction activities. This decisive shift highlights the evolving conversation around value and product, demonstrating that companies must adapt to stay relevant.
Six months to fund $5 billion
DataVolt expects to close financing on its Saudi AI data centre pipeline — $5 billion total — within six months, with a 1.5GW facility at Neom whose first phase is due operational in 2028. Its Uzbekistan site TAS-1 is raising up to $150 million against a $250 million project cost, including $78 million from the EBRD on a 12-year non-recourse term; the first 6MW phase has under 10% of capacity left. Parent Vision Invest manages more than $95 billion of infrastructure assets.
The Uzbekistan deal is the tell. A 12-year non-recourse structure with a development bank anchoring it is the template they'll try to replicate at Neom and 1.5GW is roughly twenty times the scale, which is where the template gets tested.
Saudi VC halved, then halved again
Saudi venture capital funding fell 74% year on year to $219 million in H1 2026, from roughly $853 million in H1 2025, across 72 deals, down 41% from 122. Fintech took 67% of dollars ($147 million); the Kingdom held a 34% share of MENA deal count, with early-stage rounds at 83% of all deals.
Deal count fell 41% while dollar volume fell 74%, the average check shrank even faster than the number of deals. Investors aren't just doing less; they're doing smaller, which is the more telling half of this number.
