Latest Signals
Short observations on markets, growth, technology, and decision-making.
The headline is oil. The story is 0.6%.
GASTAT's flash estimate puts Q2 real GDP down 4.8% year on year, oil activities −24.7%, non-oil +0.6%, government +0.9%. Seasonally adjusted, the economy shrank 4.9% on the quarter. For context, the Q1 2026 flash showed GDP +3.0% with non-oil +2.8%. so on a like-for-like flash basis, non-oil growth has fallen from 2.8% to 0.6% in one quarter.
A −4.8% print looks bad and mostly isn't; a +0.6% print looks fine and mostly isn't. That inversion is the whole difficulty of reading this economy right now, the alarming number is the reassuring one, and the reassuring number is the one to worry about.
SR 3.6bn, 2,505 apartments, one fund
Alramz Real Estate established a Shariah-compliant fund of more than SR3.6bn, managed by SNB Capital, with Alramz holding 100% of the units. The vehicle covers a 90,000+ sqm site in Al Raed district, Riyadh. 2,505 residential apartments plus commercial space, on a development contract worth roughly SR1.2bn, with 10% development fees and 2.5% marketing fees over an approximately five-year term.
2,505 units delivered into a market where new residential mortgage lending has roughly halved year on year. The build is a five-year bet that the financing side normalises well before handover, and that is the assumption to interrogate, not the design.
$167 billion, and whose calendar it sits on
Kamco Invest puts Saudi bond and sukuk maturities for 2026–2030 at $167.4bn, the largest in the GCC, 64.5% of it dollar-denominated, with 73.5% of the corporate share held by banks and financial institutions.
When we opened Issue 01 with record credit of SR3.2tn, that was the top of the curve. The banks have their own maturities to meet now; price anything you plan to borrow for off the next two years of lending, not the last two.
SR 180M to keep the machines running
Al-Moammar Information Systems (MIS) was awarded a SR179.8M contract by King Saud Medical City covering maintenance and repair of medical devices and equipment together with IT works and services.
This is recurring revenue in a quarter when project revenue is under pressure. If your business is capex-dependent, the strategic question this award poses is what part of your offering could be sold as an annual service instead.
29.3 million, and counting
29.3M international tourists in 2025, up 67% since 2019, highest growth of any OECD member; SR176.6bn foreign spend, SR127.1bn domestic; 5.2% of GDP.
Domestic spend is close behind foreign and growing faster (10%), the Saudi family is the customer you can actually reach this year.
Six quarters down
Tadawul Group Q2 profit −4% to SR92M, sixth straight annual decline, while data services grew 13.7%.
An exchange earning less in a market this active is a warning about volumes, the thin tape has landed in someone's earnings.
Mobily eyes selling its towers
Preliminary TAWAL talks, NDA only, no MoU, no financial impact yet.
An NDA is a disclosure obligation, not a deal. Note who ends up owning national infrastructure as these consolidate.
Surplus up, non-oil down
Trade surplus SR26.03bn (+328.8%) in May, but oil exports +19.5% to 75.6% of the total, while non-oil exports fell 26.1%.
The test isn't whether the surplus grows, it's whether it can grow when oil doesn't.
Ad money grows up
A Snap–Kearney study found an 8-point gap between Saudi digital ad-spend growth and e-commerce growth; 30%+ of Saudi consumers find advertising culturally off-key.
The takeaway: A third of Saudi consumers feel that the ads don't represent them; the biggest growth driver isn't budget, but rather cultural fluency.
One rulebook for the Gulf
The Cabinet approved unified GCC rules for jointly owned properties, standardizing common-area governance, owner rights, and asset management.
The takeaway: Disputes over shared ownership are the quiet friction in every tower, an unglamorous fix that unlocks investment.
Al Rajhi tops SR13.7bn
H1 bank profits: Al Rajhi SR13.76bn (+14.15%, highest of any lender), SNB SR13.02bn, Riyad SR5.26bn, Alinma SR3.27bn; total credit a record SR3.2tn, +16.2% YoY
The takeaway: Al Rajhi out-earned every bank and grew fastest; scale and speed together are rare, worth studying.
Kicking the maturities to 2041
NDMC redeemed SR17.1bn ($4.5bn) of 2026–2030 sukuk and issued SR17.2bn maturing to 2041, a liability-management exercise.
The takeaway: A state that manages its maturity curve shows confidence, indicating long-term projects your business might supply.
Medevac by the Dozen
PIF's Helicopter Co. ordered 8 more H145S under a 120-aircraft framework, expanding EMS alongside a 60+ fleet
The takeaway: air-medical response is scaling, and response-time assumptions just changed for healthcare logistics and insurers
Brussels clears the path for EA
PIF's consortium set to win EU approval for the $55bn EA take-private — history's largest LBO — merger clearance due 22 July, subsidy review closes 30 July.
The takeaway: $55bn for a games company is the clearest statement yet that entertainment is not a side bet, gaming is a Saudi strategic asset class.
License Number 77
SAMA approved Credit Line for micro consumer finance, taking licensed finance companies to 77 against a Vision 2030 target of 525, with fintech micro-lending capped at SR25,000 per borrower
The takeaway: As license numbers grow toward the 2030 target, the real advantage lies in owning distribution and the customer's daily habit, which are key to winning in the lending market.
Services Are The New Engine
PIF signed an MoU with ISquared Capital for up to $2bn, roughly $1bn each into digital infrastructureand district cooling, the unglamorous enablers behind real estate and datacenters
The takeaway: $1bn into digital infrastructure is a wager on compute demand; anyone in power, land, or connectivity near Riyadh should price a data-center boom into their plans.
Riyadh's Startup Bench
More than 2,500 startups, roughly US$2.6 billion of venture capital into Riyadh since 2018, and four unicorns.
The takeaway: your next competitor — or your next acquisition — is younger than your strategy document. Corporates need a scouting lane, not a memo.
AlUla opens the door
Phase two shifts to private-sector partnerships: triple hotel capacity to 3,000+ rooms, 1M visitors by 2030 from ~320,000
The takeaway: If PPP works here, it becomes the funding model for every destination that follows; the developers who learn the Royal Commission's playbook now will be first in line everywhere else
