Latest Signals
Short observations on markets, growth, technology, and decision-making.
What a visitor actually spends
Average trip spend among international visitors to Saudi Arabia surveyed in Visa's Global Travel Intentions Study reached SAR 10,405 ($2,774), with 54% of spending pre-booked and 46% taking place during the trip; accommodation accounted for 19% of spending, transportation 18%, food and beverages 17% and experiences 15%. US visitors recorded the highest average trip expenditure at SAR 21,530, followed by visitors from the UAE at SAR 14,046 and the UK at SAR 10,558, while 75% of respondents shopped during their stay and half said they used AI to find travel inspiration.
Destination marketers in Saudi should move budget into the pre-trip window where 54% of spending is committed and half of travellers now use AI for inspiration, rather than into arrival-stage campaigns.
The surplus widened sharply
Saudi Arabia's trade balance recorded a surplus of SR61.52 billion in the second quarter of 2026, an annual growth rate of 62%. Total merchandise exports rose 4% year on year to approximately SR285.98 billion while merchandise imports declined 5% to SR224.46 billion, according to GASTAT data.
Trade finance teams at Saudi banks should focus less on the 62% surplus growth and pay more attention to the 5% drop in imports, since their fees come from the part of the business that has decreased.
Rent eases in Riyadh
The ratio of rent burden to household income in Riyadh fell to around 15% from more than 17.5% in September 2025, Real Estate General Authority CEO Abdullah Al-Hammad said, describing it as one of the first measured effects of the real estate balance decisions, more than 18 months after they were approved. He said the most financially vulnerable households had been spending more than 30% of their income on rent.
Investors looking at Riyadh residential yields should adjust their rent-growth expectations from above 17.5% to about 15%. This change is important because the authority has now linked its credibility to this target.
The rating that held
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Saudi Arabia's long-term sovereign credit rating at 'A+' with a stable outlook, and expects real GDP to contract 0.9% in 2026 before growing 8.2% in 2027, followed by average growth of 3.3% in 2028 and 2029. The agency put non-oil activities including government at around 70% of GDP, up from 65% in 2018.
When a rating agency keeps an A+ rating but also predicts a 0.9% economic contraction, it shows that the analysts are focusing on the 70% of the economy that is not tied to oil and are prepared to be patient.
Where the Gulf's e-commerce money goes
Saudi Arabia accounted for approximately 93% of e-commerce investments across the GCC countries by 2025, up from 46% in 2021. E-commerce penetration in the Gulf retail sector stands at 11%.
Saudi Arabia has about 93% of the region's e-commerce investment, but with only 11% market penetration, it is receiving funding for online shopping that has not happened yet.
Saudis stayed home instead
Domestic travel made up 46% of Almosafer's total bookings in the first seven months of 2026, with local bookings up 13% year on year and room nights up 44%. Room nights in Makkah and Madinah rose 53%, Red Sea room nights rose more than 4,000% against the same period last year, and the Red Sea recorded the highest average booking value of any destination Saudi travellers booked, ahead of Paris and London.
Even with regional tension, travellers kept moving. They changed their routes, and the destination that saw the most demand now has the highest average booking value in the market.
Confidence at fifty-six seven
Saudi Arabia's Business Confidence Index rose to 56.7 in August from 56.5 in July, holding above the 50-point neutral threshold, according to the General Authority for Statistics. The industrial sector's index climbed to 55.8 and the services index rose to 56.1, after the overall reading dropped to 52.1 in March amid regional tensions and rebounded to 54.5 in April.
Finance directors preparing Saudi budgets for next year should interpret the figure 56.7 as an indicator of continued customer spending expectations, while the March value of 52.1 reflects the pace of change in these expectations.
Cards flat, phones compounding
Mobile payments in Saudi Arabia ran at SAR 13,100 a second in July, up from SAR 4,200 a second in July 2021 — a 210% rise across five years, and around SAR 34 billion for the month. Card sales came in at SAR 25.7 billion in the same month, up 0.3% year on year, while e-commerce set a record at SAR 37.6 billion, up 26%.
When pitching to Saudi merchants, payment infrastructure vendors should highlight the 26% e-commerce figure instead of focusing on the 0.3% card statistic. This growth is happening in an area where their buyers are not fully meeting demand.
Six hundred seventy-one million euros
The two headline fixtures of round 6 in the Roshn Saudi League carry combined squad values of €671.11 million on Transfermarkt data. Al-Qadisiyyah against Al-Ahli totals €347.73 million, Al-Ahli at €193.9 million and Al-Qadisiyyah at €153.8 million, a gap of €40.07 million, while Al-Hilal against Neom totals €323.38 million, with Al-Hilal at €239.8 million and Neom at €83.50 million. Total league squad values stand at €1.28 billion.
Most of the value is found in just a few squads, not spread evenly across the league. When you plan your sponsorship budget, focus more on the clubs that offer the most value instead of choosing league-wide packages.
Twenty kilometres at Khafji
The Public Investment Fund launched Gulf Coast Development to build an integrated tourism and residential destination at Al-Khafji covering approximately 20 square kilometres with 10 kilometres of Arabian Gulf waterfront. The plan runs to 8 residential neighbourhoods, more than 16,000 housing units and around 1,400 hotel keys across 3 main phases, with 3 neighbourhoods in the first phase completing in 2030, plus public, commercial, tourism and educational facilities and boat marinas, targeting visitors from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the wider Gulf.
This project is based on 16,000 homes instead of 1,400 hotel rooms. If you are selling here, focus on residential supply and Kuwaiti buyers from abroad, not on hospitality procurement.
A thousand ideas, four winners
The Start Smart competition concluded its 9th edition at LEAP 26 and launched its 10th, having drawn more than 1,000 submissions from which 40 ideas participated and 4 startups won: Nazra in healthcare data analytics, Findligent in smart retail, and ApolloByte in cloud design and Jamaa in collaborative commerce tied for third. Participants went through a 2-month training programme, and the tenth edition runs 4 tracks. The competition launched in 2016 and is organised by the Jameel Community Arabia Foundation with the National Program for Information Technology Development, the Digital Leadership Center and the Savola Foundation.
Receiving over 1,000 submissions and narrowing them to 40, then to 4, demonstrates an effective selection process. The primary value of a program like this lies in the top 40, rather than just the final winners.
Two and a half billion for megawatts
HUMAIN is seeking a fund with an initial target of $2.5 billion to finance 250-megawatt data centres being built with Al Moammar Information Systems, with capacity that could eventually rise to 1 gigawatt. BSF Capital manages the fund, Saudi Investment Bank is soliciting investors, and Capital Market Authority approval is expected to take 2 to 3 months, with financing structured as a mix of debt and equity.
Raising a dedicated fund, instead of using the balance sheet, positions data centre capacity as an investable asset class, with debt and equity allocated to external investors.
Ten billion and a December date
AWS is investing $10.3 billion in Saudi Arabia, including $5.3 billion (SAR 19.9 billion) in a cloud region with 3 independent availability zones launching in December 2026, and more than $5 billion in an AI zone with HUMAIN targeting 50 megawatts by 2028 and deploying up to 150,000 AI accelerators. AWS projects $191 billion of economic value from cloud services by 2033, will train 100,000 Saudi nationals including a free programme for 10,000 women, and is integrating curriculum at 11 Saudi universities.
This commitment applies to both general cloud services and AI. If you manage enterprise IT, plan your regular migration for the December launch instead of waiting for an AI project to justify the move.
Two thousand now, thirty thousand later
Expo Riyadh 2030 has nearly 2,000 people on site, expected to rise to between 20,000 and 30,000 by the end of next year. The 6 million square metre site across 5 districts is expected to host 197 nations and 29 organisations and draw more than 42 million visits, opening on 1 October 2030 and running through March 2031. Organisers said they see no anticipated issues over the next 6 to 8 months as the war tests supply lines.
Labour and local sourcing are the main challenges, not capital. If you work with the construction sector, focus on building your domestic supply credentials before the workforce grows to 20,000 or 30,000 people.
Cash falls, cards rise
Saudi consumer spending reached SAR 144.95 billion in July 2026, up 8% from SAR 134.51 billion in July 2025. Point-of-sale spending was SAR 62.85 billion, up 7%, across 1.096 billion transactions on 2.5 million terminals. E-commerce through Mada cards rose 26% to SAR 37.63 billion across 197.6 million transactions, while cash withdrawals from 14,400 ATMs fell 3% to SAR 44.47 billion. There are 70.12 million issued bank cards.
The change involves switching from one channel to another, which means that if you are running a business aimed at consumers you should shift your investments from cash handling to digital acceptance rather than considering both as part of growth.
Four billion dollars, free
Adobe, the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology and HUMAIN signed a partnership valued at more than $4 billion, giving more than 27 million citizens and residents aged 13 and above free access to Adobe Firefly Standard and Express Premium for 12 months. The agreement covers a culturally-tailored image generation model, Arabic right-to-left support, and free access for eligible startups through CODE and The Garage from early 2027.
$4 billion worth of software given to 27 million people is really a distribution strategy, not a donation. Adobe is securing its user base before anyone else can shape what creative tools look like in Arabic.
July's banking profit dips
Saudi banks made SAR 8.52 billion in profit before zakat and tax in July 2026, up 3% from SAR 8.24 billion in July 2025 but down from SAR 10.10 billion in June. Total assets reached SAR 5.187 trillion, up 7.30% year on year, deposits SAR 3.113 trillion, up 8.58%, and private sector credit SAR 3.266 trillion, up 5.64%. The data covers banks listed on the Saudi Exchange and foreign bank branches, from SAMA's monthly bulletin.
Banks are seeing deposits grow faster than loans, so margins are likely to be protected rather than increased. If you are selling to a bank, focus on cost-to-serve and skip the growth angle.
Two hundred forty-four million, committed
Derayah committed SAR 244 million to a fund investing in artificial intelligence, enterprise software and advanced technologies, paying 40%, SAR 97.5 million, on 28 August, with the remaining 60% due over 24 months. The fund targets SAR 4.5 billion and is capped at SAR 5.62 billion, with roughly 15 portfolio companies expected.
SAR 244 million has been committed to a SAR 4.5 billion fund that will support approximately 15 companies. The selection of the Saudi AI cohort is currently underway.
Sixteen countries become twenty-four
The Riyadh-based Digital Cooperation Organization approved 8 countries as membership candidates — Albania, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Zambia — with Tajikistan approved as an associate member, taking the organization from 16 members to 24 on accession and covering roughly 980 million people, about 12% of the global population. The DCO launched in 2020 with 5 founding countries and is working to a 2025–2028 agenda.
The expansion from 5 founding countries in 2020 to 24, now representing approximately 12% of the global population, demonstrates that standards are being set collectively. The rules on data and cross-border digital trade are determined by those who participate.
Fintech lends to factories
Fintech lending to Saudi industrial projects rose 130% in H1 2026 to SR541 million, from SR234 million in the same period last year, with fintech partners expanding to seven from three. Fintech financing to the industrial sector reached SR774 million in 2025, up 36% from SR569 million in 2024 and SR317 million in 2023. The H1 2026 figure represents about 70% of last year's full-year total.
SR317 million in 2023 increased to SR774 million by 2025 and reached SR541 million by mid this year. This rapid growth does not reflect innovation but instead points to an ongoing gap in conventional credit.
Two quarters, two directions
Saudi Arabia's trade surplus reached SAR 154.72 billion in H1 2026, up 53.17% year on year, on total foreign trade of SAR 1.052 trillion, with exports up 7.3% and imports down 2.7%. The half was front-loaded: Q1 delivered SAR 93.2 billion of the surplus and Q2 SAR 61.52 billion. March surged 213.7% to SAR 56.49 billion, February was the strongest month for total trade at SAR 183.17 billion, and June the weakest at SAR 158.21 billion.
The surplus rose by 53.17% in the first half of the year. The second quarter surplus was SAR 61.52 billion, down from SAR 93.2 billion in the first quarter. This growth was driven by a strong first quarter, although the trend is now declining.
Fifty megawatts becomes 250
Al Moammar Information Systems received a letter of award expanding its AI data centre project with HUMAIN from 50 megawatts to 250 megawatts, adding 200 megawatts in phases. The expanded contract value exceeds 689% of the company's total 2025 revenue, which was SAR 1.27 billion; the original award announced in March represented more than 155% of 2024 revenue. Work on the first 50 MW continues while engineering, procurement and construction begin on the additional capacity, with contract procedures to be finalised within two weeks.
The company increased its capacity from 50 to 250 megawatts and reported SAR 1.27 billion in revenue last year. This rapid growth in scale exceeded the pace of business development.
Fifty days and 6,681 riyals
Saudi Arabia's Musanad platform reported that in H1 2026 the average domestic worker recruitment period was 50 days, at an average cost of SAR 6,681, with the service running across 39 countries. The platform handled more than 122,000 service transfer requests and more than 450,000 insurance contracts, working with approximately 6,164 approved external offices, and expanded wage payment channels to 16 digital options.
The state has made this market measurable, with transfers exceeding 122,000. Focus on preparing for customer transitions rather than prioritizing first-time recruitment.
What the 49% ceiling costs
Morgan Stanley estimates that raising Saudi Arabia's 49% foreign ownership ceiling to 75% would draw about $4.3 billion in passive inflows, and that removing the cap entirely would draw about $7.4 billion. Saudi Arabia is the last major Gulf market keeping a blanket 49% limit.
The difference between $4.3 billion and $7.4 billion represents the cost of fully removing the cap. Most passive funds are released when the ceiling is eliminated, rather than when it is raised to 75%.
