A Bloomberg survey of 15 economists at major international banks, conducted between 11 and 16 September, put average expected Saudi GDP growth for this year at about 0.6%, down from 1.6% in the previous survey, with individual estimates ranging from growth of close to 3% to a contraction of 2.5%. The same economists expect the Saudi economy to grow about 6.1% in 2027, and the survey period coincided with the attack that temporarily halted the East-West pipeline.
The difference between this year and next reflects a disruption rather than a trend. Investors considering Saudi exposure should view the 6.1% figure as a rebound estimate that requires separate stress testing.
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Furniture up, education down
Point-of-sale spending for the week ended 19 September broke down to show furniture and home supplies rising 11.4% to SAR 503.8 million and electronic devices up 5% to SAR 203.45 million, while education spending fell 42.8% to SAR 180.69 million and books and stationery fell 18.4% to SAR 113.31 million. Total spending was $3.44 billion, or SAR 12.92 billion, across 241.1 million transactions, with food and beverages down 9% to SAR 2.07 billion and restaurants and cafés down 6.7% to SAR 1.58 billion; economist Talat Hafiz linked the furniture rise to National Day promotional campaigns.
Education falling 42.8% while furniture rose 11.4% in the same week is a calendar effect in both directions, and it is why weekly retail data should be read by category rather than in total.
What the 49% ceiling costs
Morgan Stanley estimates that raising Saudi Arabia's 49% foreign ownership ceiling to 75% would draw about $4.3 billion in passive inflows, and that removing the cap entirely would draw about $7.4 billion. Saudi Arabia is the last major Gulf market keeping a blanket 49% limit.
The difference between $4.3 billion and $7.4 billion represents the cost of fully removing the cap. Most passive funds are released when the ceiling is eliminated, rather than when it is raised to 75%.
Brussels clears the path for EA
PIF's consortium set to win EU approval for the $55bn EA take-private — history's largest LBO — merger clearance due 22 July, subsidy review closes 30 July.
The takeaway: $55bn for a games company is the clearest statement yet that entertainment is not a side bet, gaming is a Saudi strategic asset class.
