Four international institutions expect Saudi growth above 5% in 2027: S&P at 8%, the IMF and World Bank at 7.9%, and Moody's at 5.1%. S&P cites exports through Yanbu on the East–West pipeline and the Kingdom's fiscal position; Moody's assumes a gradual recovery in oil output and Brent averaging $90 a barrel in 2027.
Forecasts between 5.1% and 8% all expect a recovery, but they differ on oil. The real question is how quickly exports through Yanbu will get back to normal.
Explore more signals
The rating that held
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Saudi Arabia's long-term sovereign credit rating at 'A+' with a stable outlook, and expects real GDP to contract 0.9% in 2026 before growing 8.2% in 2027, followed by average growth of 3.3% in 2028 and 2029. The agency put non-oil activities including government at around 70% of GDP, up from 65% in 2018.
When a rating agency keeps an A+ rating but also predicts a 0.9% economic contraction, it shows that the analysts are focusing on the 70% of the economy that is not tied to oil and are prepared to be patient.
Fifty-five thousand homes
Talaat Moustafa Group's Saudi subsidiary signed a preliminary agreement with PIF-owned ROSHN Group to form a joint company exploring a mixed-use development in Riyadh expected to comprise more than 55,000 residential units, alongside retail, commercial, hospitality, entertainment, healthcare and education facilities. TMG Saudi will hold 51% of the joint company and ROSHN 49%, following a 7 June memorandum of understanding under PIF's urban development and livability ecosystem, part of its 2026-2030 strategy and the Kingdom's 70% homeownership target.
The minority stake shows that PIF is bringing in execution expertise. Developers who want to win Saudi residential projects should focus on improving their delivery track record instead of just acquiring more land.
Five firms manage 60%
Assets managed by Saudi capital market institutions reached about SAR 1.36 trillion at the end of Q2 2026, up 6%, or SAR 74.5 billion, on the quarter, according to a CMA report; SNB Capital led with SAR 303.6 billion (22%), followed by Al Rajhi Capital at SAR 181.5 billion (13%) and Alinma Capital at SAR 128.6 billion (9%), and the top five firms held 60% of the total.
Five firms control 60% of a SAR 1.36 trillion market, and most of the growth is happening through bank-owned channels. If you run a boutique asset manager, focus on a niche that the top five overlook instead of trying to match their scale.
