Foreign direct investment inflows into Saudi Arabia rose 33.5% in 2025 to SAR 159.1 billion, from SAR 119.2 billion in 2024, GASTAT data show, while outflows rose 98.5% to SAR 77.7 billion, so net FDI rose only 1.7% to SAR 81.4 billion. By activity, construction drew the largest inflows at SAR 34.5 billion, followed by manufacturing at SAR 33.4 billion; by country, Luxembourg recorded the highest net inflows at SAR 24.4 billion, followed by the UAE at SAR 9.4 billion.
According to GASTAT, outflows mean foreign investors are reducing their stakes in Saudi companies by repaying loans, taking dividends, or exiting, rather than Saudi money leaving the country. Since net FDI is nearly unchanged, anyone presenting investment momentum to a board should focus on the net figure instead of just the inflow.
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This year cut, next year doubled
A Bloomberg survey of 15 economists at major international banks, conducted between 11 and 16 September, put average expected Saudi GDP growth for this year at about 0.6%, down from 1.6% in the previous survey, with individual estimates ranging from growth of close to 3% to a contraction of 2.5%. The same economists expect the Saudi economy to grow about 6.1% in 2027, and the survey period coincided with the attack that temporarily halted the East-West pipeline.
The difference between this year and next reflects a disruption rather than a trend. Investors considering Saudi exposure should view the 6.1% figure as a rebound estimate that requires separate stress testing.
PIF switches from growth to returns
The Public Investment Fund's 2026–2030 strategy shifts the mandate from expansion to value creation, after assets under management grew from about SR500 billion ($136 billion) in 2015 to over SR3.4 trillion in 2025, more than $199 billion of new domestic projects between 2021 and 2025, and total annual shareholder return above 7% since 2017.
A fund that has grown from SR500 billion to SR3.4 trillion can no longer rely on its size to impress. After five years of expansion, it must now demonstrate profitability.
