The IMF's October World Economic Outlook projects the Saudi economy to contract 3.3% in 2026 and grow 7.9% in 2027, under a baseline in which the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening in March 2027. The Fund sees Saudi inflation at 1.9% this year, while the Ministry of Finance's preliminary 2027 budget statement projected real GDP growth of 12.8% next year.
The difference between the IMF's 7.9% and the ministry's 12.8% reflects two opinions about how quickly oil revenues will come back. The budget is based on the more optimistic estimate.
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Consumers calm, producers not
Saudi consumer prices rose 1.8% year on year in August 2026, driven by housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels up 3.9%, transport up 2.0% and food and beverages up 1.4%, with the index up 0.1% on the month and the Wholesale Price Index up 4.6%; it is the fourth consecutive month at 1.8%. GASTAT published July's Producer Price Index the same day: producer prices rose 5.3% year on year, with the index at 108.1 points against 102.7 a year earlier.
For four months, consumer prices have stayed at 1.8% while producer prices have risen to 5.3%. This means the economy is protecting households from higher costs, but the extra expenses are showing up elsewhere.
What a visitor actually spends
Average trip spend among international visitors to Saudi Arabia surveyed in Visa's Global Travel Intentions Study reached SAR 10,405 ($2,774), with 54% of spending pre-booked and 46% taking place during the trip; accommodation accounted for 19% of spending, transportation 18%, food and beverages 17% and experiences 15%. US visitors recorded the highest average trip expenditure at SAR 21,530, followed by visitors from the UAE at SAR 14,046 and the UK at SAR 10,558, while 75% of respondents shopped during their stay and half said they used AI to find travel inspiration.
Destination marketers in Saudi should move budget into the pre-trip window where 54% of spending is committed and half of travellers now use AI for inspiration, rather than into arrival-stage campaigns.
Ad money grows up
A Snap–Kearney study found an 8-point gap between Saudi digital ad-spend growth and e-commerce growth; 30%+ of Saudi consumers find advertising culturally off-key.
The takeaway: A third of Saudi consumers feel that the ads don't represent them; the biggest growth driver isn't budget, but rather cultural fluency.
