THE BASELINE.
THE NUMBER
Riyadh hotel occupancy, Q2
Revenue per available room fell by 16.3 percentage points year on year, dropping 23.2%. This was the biggest decline among Saudi cities, and JLL attributes it to weaker corporate demand. But just three days later, the office market report told a different story: Riyadh’s prime office rents rose 3% to SR3,320 per square metre in the same quarter, with Grade A occupancy nearly full and international firms competing for space. In the same city and the same three months, the trends moved in opposite directions. Corporate demand did not leave Riyadh last quarter. Instead, it stopped booking hotel rooms and started signing office leases.
THREE SIGNALS
Fintech lending to Saudi industrial projects rose 130% in H1 2026 to SR541 million, from SR234 million in the same period last year, with fintech partners expanding to seven from three. Fintech financing to the industrial sector reached SR774 million in 2025, up 36% from SR569 million in 2024 and SR317 million in 2023. The H1 2026 figure represents about 70% of last year's full-year total.
SR317 million in 2023 increased to SR774 million by 2025 and reached SR541 million by mid this year. This rapid growth does not reflect innovation but instead points to an ongoing gap in conventional credit.
Abdullah Alkherb
Saudi Arabia's trade surplus reached SAR 154.72 billion in H1 2026, up 53.17% year on year, on total foreign trade of SAR 1.052 trillion, with exports up 7.3% and imports down 2.7%. The half was front-loaded: Q1 delivered SAR 93.2 billion of the surplus and Q2 SAR 61.52 billion. March surged 213.7% to SAR 56.49 billion, February was the strongest month for total trade at SAR 183.17 billion, and June the weakest at SAR 158.21 billion.
The surplus rose by 53.17% in the first half of the year. The second quarter surplus was SAR 61.52 billion, down from SAR 93.2 billion in the first quarter. This growth was driven by a strong first quarter, although the trend is now declining.
Mohammed Altuwaijri
Morgan Stanley estimates that raising Saudi Arabia's 49% foreign ownership ceiling to 75% would draw about $4.3 billion in passive inflows, and that removing the cap entirely would draw about $7.4 billion. Saudi Arabia is the last major Gulf market keeping a blanket 49% limit.
The difference between $4.3 billion and $7.4 billion represents the cost of fully removing the cap. Most passive funds are released when the ceiling is eliminated, rather than when it is raised to 75%.
Osamah Alfadda
THE MOVE
One letter of award, bigger than the company's year
Al Moammar Information Systems received a letter of award on 25 August expanding its HUMAIN AI data centre project from 50 megawatts to 250, adding 200 MW in phases. The total contract value exceeds 689% of MIS's 2025 revenue, which was SR 1.27 billion. Construction work begins now; the contract itself is expected to be signed within two weeks. (Argaam)
HUMAIN expanded its capacity fourfold, significantly impacting contractors. The following day, MIS renewed and amended SR 2 billion in facilities with Al Rajhi Bank, fully secured by promissory notes. These two disclosures, issued one day apart, reflect different aspects of the same situation: the bank secured its entire exposure without assuming any project risk.
The facility is scheduled to operate until 31 August 2027. The construction it funds will continue beyond this date, although the underlying contract has not yet been signed. This renewal affects all project suppliers, and if you are among them, procurement activities began prior to contract execution.
FROM THE FIELD
LEAP starts tomorrow, and in its first four years, it saw over $42 billion in announced investments. Here’s a useful habit for the week: as new announcements come in, pick three and note the amounts. Then, set a reminder for next August to see which ones actually turned into contracts. There’s a big difference between announcing and signing a deal; only signed deals bring in revenue.
