THE BASELINE.
THE NUMBER
billion riyals, this year's deficit, as the Finance Ministry now forecasts it
According to Wednesday's pre-budget statement, spending in 2027 is expected to reach SR1.39 trillion, while revenue is projected at SR1.20 trillion. The main takeaway is that this year's deficit is now forecast at SR245 billion, higher than the SR166 billion estimated in the budget. Revenue is expected to come in above budget at SR1,190 billion, up from SR1,147 billion, even though the ministry predicts oil activity will drop by 21.8%. Spending is also set to rise to SR1,435 billion, up from SR1,313 billion. The deficit increase comes from higher spending rather than lower income. Next year, planned spending of SR1.39 trillion is higher than this year's budget but lower than what the government now expects to spend this year.
THREE SIGNALS
SAMA approved raising the capital of GO Money, GO Telecom's wholly owned subsidiary, from SAR 20 million to SAR 138 million, with SAR 100 million in new cash from the parent, to support growth of its financing portfolio. The same day, Barq said it became the first digital wallet in the Kingdom to receive SAMA's preliminary approval to add financing to its activities.
Payments opened the door, but lending is where the real profits are. Now that SAMA allows wallet and telecom-backed companies to enter this space, bank digital teams need to decide whether to partner with these players or compete with them directly.
Osamah Alfadda
Saudi Arabia enters JPMorgan's Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets on a phased basis from 29 January 2027 at a weight of 2.52%, which Fitch expects to draw structural foreign demand into the local debt market. Non-Saudi investors held 15% of the Kingdom's sovereign primary debt issuances in the first half of 2026; foreign ownership of the Saudi Exchange main market free float reached 12.7% in August 2026; the Qualified Foreign Investor framework was removed in February 2026, and the exchange accounted for about 63% of the GCC's roughly $4 trillion combined market capitalization in September 2026.
Index inclusion, not market access, drives flows in this context. Debt capital markets bankers pitching to Saudi issuers should focus on the January 2027 date rather than the reform record.
Abdullah Alkherb
Riyadh hosts the 25th WPC Energy Congress from 11 to 15 October at the Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center, the first time Saudi Arabia has held it, with more than 25,000 delegates expected alongside 100 energy ministers, 500 chief executives, 800 speakers and 1,000 companies across more than 50,000 square metres of exhibition space. The congress falls against projected global energy investment of $3.4 trillion in 2026, of which about $2.2 trillion is directed to clean energy, grids, storage and efficiency.
The primary value is access, not exhibition. Suppliers planning to attend should focus their week on engaging with the 500 chief executives rather than on their exhibition stand.
Mohammed Altuwaijri
THE MOVE
Both ends of the Makkah trade
Alramz launched Masar Corner in Makkah on 30 September: two towers, 541 units, delivery in 2029. By the end of launch day it had about SR670 million of preliminary off-plan bookings from customers in 51 countries, which the company tied to the new rules on non-Saudi ownership and the provisions specific to Makkah. (Argaam)
The company made that connection in its Tadawul filing. The other side of the transaction happened over the same two days. Masar sold boulevard plots to developers for SR310.44 million and SR183.74 million, both at more than double their book value. Land prices are rising on one side, while homes are being sold off-plan overseas on the other. Alramz does not clarify if Masar Corner is on Masar land, so these should not be seen as a single deal.
It is important to see how much of the SR670 million will turn into signed contracts. Alramz will recognize the revenue from 2026 to 2029 as construction progresses, so bookings are the starting point, not actual sales. If you are lending against land near the Haram, you can use Masar's two sales as your new comparables.
FROM THE FIELD
We have been named the exclusive partnership sponsor for the 12th Riyadh Economic Forum, 12–14 October, under royal patronage and organized by the Riyadh Chamber. One key point to note if you are considering it: the forum's recommendations are presented to the Royal Court, and many have become government initiatives and decisions. Eleven sessions have produced 57 studies. This one covers five themes, from traffic congestion to water security, and we are choosing partners based on what each one adds. For more info, contact us: sponsorship@impactors.com.sa
